U.S. Imposes 46% Tariff: A Loud Wake-Up Call for Vietnamese Exporters?
Recently, the U.S. government announced a 46% countervailing duty on certain Vietnamese goods — a move that feels less like a policy update and more like a blaring alarm for Vietnamese businesses. While America has long been Vietnam’s largest export market, accounting for nearly 29.5% of total export turnover in 2024 (according to Vietnam Customs), this decision has highlighted just how precariously dependent Vietnam has become on a single trade partner.
The tariff doesn’t just bring higher costs. It signals a deeper shift in U.S. trade policy: increasing scrutiny on origin, environmental, and labor standards. The textile, seafood, electronics, and wood processing sectors are among the most affected — industries that already face growing pressure to prove transparent supply chains and compliance with global ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) standards.
Facing such sweeping trade actions, Vietnamese enterprises now find themselves at a strategic crossroads. At a recent “HUBA Business Café” seminar on May 10, Pham Binh An, Deputy Director of the Ho Chi Minh City Institute for Development Studies, warned that companies must re-structure and de-risk their export strategies. “If businesses fail to diversify and adjust now, they will become vulnerable the moment any partner changes its policy,” he cautioned.
One promising path lies in tapping into the vast network of free trade agreements (FTAs) that Vietnam has signed. Countries like Japan, Australia, those in the EU and ASEAN offer more stable trade frameworks with lower technical barriers and preferential tax rates. At the same time, experts emphasize the untapped potential of the domestic market as a long-term anchor — especially in urban hubs like Ho Chi Minh City, which boasts growing logistics, finance, and industrial support infrastructure.
Some industries are already taking action. For instance, Vietnam’s textile sector is working to raise its domestic material sourcing ratio from 40% to 60%, according to Pham Van Viet, Vice Chairman of the HCMC Association of Garment, Embroidery and Knitting. This shift is crucial to minimize risks of origin investigations and reduce reliance on foreign raw materials.
But the real challenge doesn’t stop at supply chains. Global trade is being reshaped by two irreversible trends: green transformation and digitalization. Vietnamese firms that don’t adapt risk being left out of international value chains entirely.
On a national level, economist Dr. Can Van Luc revealed that Vietnam is preparing for three potential scenarios in trade talks with the U.S.:
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Optimistic: Tariffs are reduced to around 10%.
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Neutral: Tariffs drop to 20–25%.
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Pessimistic: Tariffs remain at 46%.
The neutral scenario is considered the most likely — though it could still lead to a 1.2–1.5% decrease in exports and a 3–5% decline in foreign direct investment (FDI). If the worst-case scenario materializes, Vietnam’s GDP growth could slow to 5.5–6%, especially impacting high-value sectors like electronics, plastics, and seafood.
At the monthly government meeting on April 6, Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh stressed that the U.S. is indeed Vietnam’s top export market — but not its only one. He called this challenge an “opportunity in disguise” to restructure the economy toward speed, sustainability, and innovation. The directive to ministries? Help businesses upgrade quality, open new markets — especially in the Middle East, Latin America, India, Central Asia, and Eastern Europe — and reduce over-dependence on any single market.
In other words: the time for polite hesitation is over. Vietnamese businesses must either adapt — or be left behind.
