On November 21, Financial Times published an editorial that sent ripples across the entire region. The article simultaneously criticized China, warned Japan, and analyzed a series of emerging security risks surrounding Taiwan. This was not a routine commentary—it read like a geopolitical storm forecast: East Asia is entering a new era of instability, where interests and power matter more than ever.
At that sensitive moment, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi—well known for her hard-line style—appeared beside her car bearing the license plate number 37.77. To Chinese public opinion, this was anything but random. The number immediately evokes July 7, 1937, the outbreak of the Marco Polo Bridge Incident, the event that marked the beginning of the Second Sino-Japanese War. For Beijing, it is a painful historical memory; for Tokyo, choosing that number at this exact time is understood as a deliberate, wordless diplomatic message.
During a parliamentary session, Prime Minister Takaichi stated what generations of Japanese leaders had long avoided saying publicly:
“If Taiwan is attacked, Japan may fall into a situation where its survival is threatened.”
Under Japan’s 2015 Security Legislation, a “survival-threatening situation” is a condition that allows Tokyo to use force under the right of collective self-defense—even if Japan itself has not yet been directly attacked. In the words of Financial Times: Takaichi simply said aloud what all experts already understand — a Taiwan conflict would automatically pull Japan into the confrontation.
Beijing reacted fiercely. The Chinese Consul General in Osaka even posted a violent threat: “If you stick your filthy head into this matter, I will cut it off without hesitation.”
Although the comment was later deleted, it did nothing to stop the wave of anger spreading online. China has since tightened visa controls, exerted economic pressure, stepped up military presence, and continued its “wolf-warrior diplomacy” against both Japan and Taiwan.
Financial Times assessed that China’s reaction reflects increasing arrogance and a growing departure from diplomatic norms. But the newspaper also warned Takaichi: being right is not the same as choosing the right timing. Sino-Japanese relations are full of historical “detonators,” where a single strong statement can trigger a domino effect that sparks conflict.
The Marco Polo Bridge Incident
The Marco Polo Bridge Incident of 1937 was not merely a clash. It marked the beginning of a war that killed tens of millions and left a deep trauma in China’s national memory. For decades, Beijing has used these painful chapters to reinforce anti-“Japanese militarism” sentiment.
So when Prime Minister Takaichi—the head of the Japanese government—appeared in public with a number that precisely recalls that moment in history, it was a highly symbolic act. No speech was needed, no official statement; a single set of digits was enough to pull history back onto the negotiation table.
This “say little but say everything” gesture carries the classic signature of Japanese political communication. And it makes Beijing understand that Tokyo no longer intends to maintain the soft and cautious posture of the past.
Taiwan — the decisive flashpoint for Japan–China relations
Tokyo has repeatedly affirmed that Taiwan’s future is directly linked to Japan’s national security. This is not theory but strategic reality:
-
Japan’s critical sea lanes pass through the Taiwan Strait.
-
Tens of thousands of Japanese citizens live on the island.
-
If the U.S. is drawn into a conflict, Japan will inevitably be affected — U.S. bases in Japan would become immediate targets.
-
The Senkaku/Diaoyu dispute is already a flashpoint; the more aggressive China becomes toward Taiwan, the more likely the East China Sea is to erupt.
Financial Times notes that Takaichi is not exaggerating; she is merely articulating what Tokyo is compelled to confront.
Japan no longer fully relies on the American “umbrella”
One notable warning in the Financial Times editorial is that Japan can no longer rely wholly on the United States as it did during the Cold War. American politics is polarized, Washington’s strategic priorities are shifting, and its military commitments are now spread across multiple fronts.
Therefore, Japan must reinforce its own capabilities:
strengthening air and missile defense, coastal protection, expanding military cooperation with South Korea, Taiwan, Australia, and the Philippines, and deepening defense technology ties with the U.S. without becoming entirely dependent.
This strategic shift explains why Tokyo is increasing its defense budget at the fastest pace in decades.
Đăng nhận xét